Flow Matching (FM) underpins many state-of-the-art generative models, yet recent results indicate that Transition Matching (TM) can achieve higher quality with fewer sampling steps. This work answers the question of when and why TM outperforms FM. First, when the target is a unimodal Gaussian distribution, we prove that TM attains strictly lower KL divergence than FM for finite number of steps. The improvement arises from stochastic difference latent updates in TM, which preserve target covariance that deterministic FM underestimates. We then characterize convergence rates, showing that TM achieves faster convergence than FM under a fixed compute budget, establishing its advantage in the unimodal Gaussian setting. Second, we extend the analysis to Gaussian mixtures and identify local-unimodality regimes in which the sampling dynamics approximate the unimodal case, where TM can outperform FM. The approximation error decreases as the minimal distance between component means increases, highlighting that TM is favored when the modes are well separated. However, when the target variance approaches zero, each TM update converges to the FM update, and the performance advantage of TM diminishes. In summary, we show that TM outperforms FM when the target distribution has well-separated modes and non-negligible variances. We validate our theoretical results with controlled experiments on Gaussian distributions, and extend the comparison to real-world applications in image and video generation.

Diffusion and flow matching models have significantly advanced media generation, yet their design space is well-explored, somewhat limiting further improvements. Concurrently, autoregressive (AR) models, particularly those generating continuous tokens, have emerged as a promising direction for unifying text and media generation. This paper introduces Transition Matching (TM), a novel discrete-time, continuous-state generative paradigm that unifies and advances both diffusion/flow models and continuous AR generation. TM decomposes complex generation tasks into simpler Markov transitions, allowing for expressive non-deterministic probability transition kernels and arbitrary non-continuous supervision processes, thereby unlocking new flexible design avenues. We explore these choices through three TM variants: (i) Difference Transition Matching (DTM), which generalizes flow matching to discrete-time by directly learning transition probabilities, yielding state-of-the-art image quality and text adherence as well as improved sampling efficiency. (ii) Autoregressive Transition Matching (ARTM) and (iii) Full History Transition Matching (FHTM) are partially and fully causal models, respectively, that generalize continuous AR methods. They achieve continuous causal AR generation quality comparable to non-causal approaches and potentially enable seamless integration with existing AR text generation techniques. Notably, FHTM is the first fully causal model to match or surpass the performance of flow-based methods on text-to-image task in continuous domains. We demonstrate these contributions through a rigorous large-scale comparison of TM variants and relevant baselines, maintaining a fixed architecture, training data, and hyperparameters.